Climate change could move 200 million people by 2050: World Bank report – Naveen Bharat

BARCELONA: Climate change could drive more than 200 million people to leave their homes and become migration hotspots over the next three decades, unless immediate action is taken to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap . world Bank The report has been received.
The second part of the Groundswell report, published Monday, examines how the effects of slow-onset climate change such as water scarcity, reduced crop productivity and rising sea levels will lead to three under three “climate migrants” by 2050. How can millions of people reported as Different scenarios with varying degrees of climate action and development.
Under the most pessimistic scenario, with high levels of emissions and uneven growth, the report estimates that 216 million people are moving to their own countries in the six regions analyzed. Those regions are Latin America; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Europe and Central Asia; South Asia; and East Asia and the Pacific.
In the most climate-friendly scenario, with low levels of emissions and inclusive, sustainable development, the number of migrants can be reduced by up to 80% but still result in the movement of 44 million people.
The report did not take into account the short-term effects of climate change, such as the impact on extreme weather events.
The findings “confirm the power of climate to induce migration within countries,” said Vivian Wei Chen Clement, a senior climate change expert at the World Bank and one of the report’s authors.
in the worst case, Sub-Saharan Africa Areas most vulnerable to desertification, fragile coastlines and the population’s reliance on agriculture will have the most movement, with 86 million climate migrants migrating within national borders.
However, North Africa is predicted to have the largest proportion of climate migrants, with 19 million people moving in, equivalent to about 9% of its total population, largely due to the north-east of Tunisia, off the north-west coast of Algeria. There is a shortage of water in the coast. , western and southern Morocco, and the Middle Atlas foothills, the report said.
In South Asia, Bangladesh is particularly affected by floods and crop failure, which account for nearly half of the estimated climate migrants, with 19.9 million people, including an increasing share of women, moving under a pessimistic scenario by 2050. are.
“This is our human reality right now and we are worried that it is going to get worse, where the vulnerability is more acute,” Prof. marten van alsto, director of the International Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center, who was not involved in the report.
The report did not look at climate migration across borders.
“Globally we know that three out of four people who migrate live within countries,” said Dr. Kanta Kumari. rigaud, a leading environmental expert at the World Bank and a co-author of the report.
Nevertheless, migration patterns from rural to urban areas are often preceded by movements across borders.
While the impact of climate change on migration is not new, it is often part of a combination of factors driving people to move, and acts as a threat multiplier. People affected by conflict and inequality are also more vulnerable to the effects of climate change because they have limited means of adaptation.
The report also warned that migration hotspots could appear within the next decade and intensify by 2050. There needs to be planning in the areas where people will move, and the areas that go to help the people who live.
Suggested actions included achieving “a chance to limit net-zero emissions to 1.5°C by mid-century” and investing in “green, resilient and inclusive” development in line with the Paris Agreement.
Clement and Rigaud warned that the worst-case scenario is “plausible” if collective action is not taken to reduce emissions and invest in development, especially in the next decade.
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