Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das announced the policy decision today at the end of the scheduled review of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that began on Wednesday, October 6, as it assesses the economy at a time when there is A steady pick-up in activity and calculated progress in vaccination campaigns – a quarter of India’s adult population is being fully vaccinated and about 71 per cent partially vaccinated, amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
This was the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review for the fiscal year 2021-22, when the central banking authority looked to support a recovering economy after a second wave shock, even as rising fuel prices amid the escalating global energy crisis. Inflation increases risk.
India’s economy grew at the rate of 20.1 percent in the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year. The sharp jump in gross domestic product (GDP) was mostly aided by a lower base effect as the economy contracted a record 24.4 percent in the year-ago period.
Here are all the live updates from today’s RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das-led Monetary Policy Committee meeting:
Depending on the evolving liquidity conditions and the pace of government spending, RBI may consider supplementing 14-day Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) actions with 28-day VRRR auctions. The RBI governor said VRRR should not be interpreted as a reversal of the policy stance.
RBI’s Monetary Policy Live: IMPS transaction limit proposed to be raised to Rs 5 lakh
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that the committee proposes to increase the IMPS limit per transaction from Rs 2 lakh at present to Rs 5 lakh. RBI also proposed to introduce a framework for leveraging geo-tagging technology on all new and existing payment infrastructure.
RBI’s Monetary Policy Live: No need to conduct further G-SAP operations
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das while addressing the Monetary Policy Statement today announced that there is no further need to conduct G-SAP operations.
RBI Monetary Policy Live Updates: Inflation trajectory more favorable than expected
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das while addressing the Monetary Policy Statement today said that the inflation trajectory is more favorable than expected.
RBI’s Monetary Policy Live: Economic output still below pre-Covid levels
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das announced that economic output is still below pre-Covid levels. He said that high frequency indicators suggest that economic activity has picked up during the second quarter.
The RBI Governor announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the current financial year 2021-22 is estimated at 5.3 per cent. Inflation is seen at 5.1 per cent in the second quarter of the current financial year, 4.5 per cent in the third quarter and 5.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of the financial year.
MPC Meet Live Updates: RBI targets 17.1 per cent GDP growth for the first quarter of next fiscal
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that the estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of the next financial year 2022-23 is estimated at 17.1 per cent.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that the projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the current financial year 2021-22 remains intact at 9.5 per cent. The RBI governor said that the growth rate is expected to be 6.8 percent in the third quarter and 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter of the financial year.
The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy kept repo rates – the key interest rates at which the RBI lends money to commercial banks – stable at four per cent. Reverse repo rate – the rate at which RBI borrows money from banks, also remained unchanged at 3.35 per cent. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee voted 5:1 to maintain a lenient stance and keep key rates unchanged.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das began addressing the Monetary Policy Statement on Friday, August 6 at 10:00 am. A post policy press conference will be telecast today at 12:00 PM.
“With a mixed bag both in terms of growth and inflation outlook, RBI and MPC would like to wait for a clearer picture. But as the economy recovers, and looking at the financial stability perspective, additional liquidity will be gradually injected. It is also necessary to withdraw slowly and reverse an ultra-low interest rate regime with potential initial asset price dislocations.
The RBI needs to telegraph the path of normalization instead of letting market expectations tick inappropriately. The RBI has so far focused on the near term, and October’s would be the perfect window to outline its views on policy normalisation, especially since the RBI would certainly like to avoid any strictures,” Suvodip Rakshit , said senior economist at Kotak Institutional Equities.
RBI’s Monetary Policy Live: RBI raises inflation forecast to 5.7 per cent in previous policy
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das raised the CPI inflation estimate for the current fiscal to 5.7 per cent from 5.1 per cent in the previous policy statement due to inflationary concerns. The RBI governor said inflation may remain close to the upper tolerance band till the second quarter of the current financial year, however, the pressure should ease in the third quarter as kharif crop arrivals and supply-side measures take effect.
Shares of private banks and PSUs will remain in focus during market hours today, as the Reserve Bank of India announces important decisions on interest rates and liquidity measures. Before the policy announcement, the Sensex opened with a gain of 297 points and the Nifty 50 index was trading strongly above its important psychological level of 17,850.
MPC Meet Live Updates: Moody’s upgrades India’s rating from ‘Negative’ to ‘Stable’
Moody’s upgraded India’s rating outlook to “stable” from its earlier “negative” outlook. The global rating agency said the economic recovery is progressing as activity picks up gradually and spread across sectors. Moody’s downgraded India’s rating from Baa2 to Baa3 last year, noting that it could face difficulties in implementing policies to mitigate the risks of a sustained period of low growth.
MPC Meet Live Updates: RBI maintains status quo on lending rates for 7 consecutive times
In the last meeting held on 6 August, the RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das-led Monetary Committee maintained status quo for the seventh time in a row, keeping lending rates stable. RBI has maintained the repo rate at a record low of 4 per cent since May 2020. It last cut policy rates on May 22, 2020, to support the economy from post-pandemic shocks.
RBI’s Monetary Policy Live: Services industry expands for second consecutive month in September
The country’s services industry expanded for the second consecutive month in September 2021, with improved domestic demand and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, prompting companies to hire more employees for the first time in nearly a year. The IHS Market Services Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from an 18-month high of 56.7 in August to 55.2 in September, but remained comfortably above the 50-mark, separating growth from contraction.
RBI Monetary Policy Live: Market participants keep an eye on RBI’s liquidity guidance
Market participants will keep a close watch on the central bank’s guidance on liquidity withdrawal, noting that surplus cash in the banking system recently topped Rs 10 trillion. Many also expect the RBI to announce additional bond purchases. The banking regulator has already bought bonds worth Rs 2.05 lakh crore in the current financial year under the government’s securities acquisition programme.
“The October policy is expected to signal the end of ‘excessive’ Covid-era housing amid continued growth in economic activity and advances in vaccination from the MPC. Possibility of obtaining a measured central bank response – particularly on surplus banking system liquidity.
We expect that emphasis on a slow, gradual taper, with the expected G-SAP 3.0 announcement, should keep any undue bond market volatility under control,” said Churchill Bhatt, EVP Debt Investments, Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company Ltd. said.
In the last bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee meeting held in August 2021, the Reserve Bank of India retained the gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections for the financial year 2021-22 at 9.5 per cent. Earlier, it had lowered the growth forecast to 9.5 per cent from 10.5 per cent.
“Central bankers around the world are the center of easy money lending for normalcy. Policy makers in India will also have to weigh in on data ranging from PMI, tax collections, balance of payments etc. which are recovering, to inflation which may continue. To wonder on the downside for the next few months.
The central banker may wish to follow the thrust slowly, hence revise the VRRR amount and duration (increase) and also announce Operation Twist (OT) in place of outright bond purchases. This yield curve harmonizes with his ‘gradual evolution’ of the narrative. Lakshmi Iyer, CIO (Debt) and Head Products, Kotak Mutual Fund said, “We expect status quo in rates for now, with guidance towards easing the repo and reverse repo corridors.
RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged to support the recovery growth, but some analysts have cited a slim possibility of an indicative hike in the reverse repo rate – the rate at which RBI Borrows from banks.
In a recent survey conducted by news agency Reuters, all 60 economists who took part in the survey saw no change in the repo rate. Even though the price pressure has increased due to rising fuel prices, the RBI is expected to raise the repo rate only in April-June 2022.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das will deliver the Monetary Policy Review Statement today (October 8, 2021) at 10:00 am. The RBI governor will also address the press conference after the policy at 12 noon.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the statement of the fourth bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for the financial year 2021-22 today.